It's been like full week...

And a busy one at that.

Tuesday morning was quite possible the worste feeling I've ever had waking up.  As many of you know, my Chokies, choked one up in the last 2 minutes of the game, giving away a victory over #3 Boise State.  It was however, one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched.  I felt like I got hit by a truck the next day.

Meteorogical Summer started 10 days ago, and we have already had several nights in the 40's :) :) :).
I am a huge huge huge huge closet weather nerd.  Why I didn't go to school for meteorology is beyond me, but I'm here at LU and I love it.

Anyways, here's a few fall predictions for Central and SW Virginia for this fall.

Average Temperatures:   We are coming out of the hottest summer on record, which is coming out of the snowiest winter on record.  I expect within 2-3 weeks the mountains will have their first freezing temperatures.  Normalcy for once? Possibly.

This is the "cold snap" I refer to coming in the coming weeks.

Below Average Precipitation:  We have already seen a trend begining of dry, cool Canadian cold fronts cross the region in the first several days of September.  When this happens, any type of tropical system gets deflected away from the Eastern US by the subsequent high pressure system.  Look for this to really establish itself toward the middle/ later part of the month.    Rain has been very minimal for several weeks now, look for this to continue at least toward the last week of September.

The broadness of this map speaks to me.  The browns are abnormally dry, over such a vast area, this indicates that it is a pattern of dry weather, not just an isolated incodent.

When will the leaves start to change?  Our area is known for it's diverse color in the fall.  Often times a 20 minute drive and a 2,000' elevation change are the difference between a sea of green and an ocean of bright orange, red, and yellow.  The season this year, looks to be alot duller than most, which is a real dissapointment.  A combination of very little rain, and a very hot summer, have things kind of dried out.  Winds look to be common this fall, too.  Providing easy access for the dry, dead leaves not to stay long.  Elevation is a good guide to go by, in determining when the leaves will start/peak/end.

• 0-1,000' (coastal areas):  Start Mid October Peak, Mid November
• 1,000'2,000' ( valley areas of the mountains/ Piedmont):  ; Start, Early October; Peak, Around November 1st
• 2,000 - 3,500; (Blue Ridge Parkway, West)  Start, Mid September; Peak, Early October-Mid October
• 3,5000' (Grayson Highlands, Higher Elevations of the Shenandoah) +; Start, Early September, Peak; Late September, Early October.

The question I'm dying to answer is, "When will it snow"? Here in Lyncburg ( the Piedmont ), don't look for any before Thanskgiving.  Again, this is an elevation thing, here are my best guesses.

• First flakes above 2800', Late October.  First Accumlation of Snow - I'm going early this year, Fall Break, the week before Thanksgiving.
• First flakes above 4,000' - Early October; First Accumulation of Snow, Late October.
• Piedmont:  First Flakes/ Accumulation - December.

1. Two Bold Predictions about the fall.  No Hurricane will strike the U.S.  The pattern just doesn't support it, at least until Early October, and by then the tropics will be dying.  Not impossible, I just don't see it happening.

                                         
2. A Major Snowstorm  will strike the interior NE in late October.  With a cooling trend coming the next several weeks, I look for a warm up in the Eastern US in the beggining of Octbober, followed by winter establishing itself in the Eastern US the later part of the month.  It is not unheard of to have heavy wet snowfalls in the mountains of WV/PA/NY in late October, and I see a pattern favorable for that this year.  Check out this map summarizing a storm last October 18-20th in the Eastern US, snow fell from the high mountains of NC to New England. (See Above)

I'm have a pretty good idea of my winter forecast, I will  post it the later part of this month, as some trends in the upper air patterns for the coming season still have to present themselves.

I'm done nerding it up for the week.  Deuces.