First of all, this coming winter will be nothing like last. Last winter, we experienced 3 major snowstorms, each one dropping over 12 inches of snow. We also recieved two six inch snowstorms, one in December, and one in March to kickoff and end the winter seasons. ( You can see my complete summary of last winter, HERE) The six inch snows, are common, however, the multiple burrials of a foot plus of snow was not. So, don't expect that again this year, it simply won't happen.
So what will happen? Well, it's extremely evident that we have a moderate to strong La Nina in place, and when this happens, it virtually takes away the Southern jet stream. As many of you know, this is where we get our storminess from. There are signals showing that La Nina will weaken, and signals are already supporting the pattern breaking down somewhat allowing for more oppurtunities at colder air. However, as long as the Southern Stream stays shunted south of us, snow will be hard to come by. A storm or two will come frome the Pacific, and track across the nation, but these are mild, and make snow hard to come by.
December will start out cold. I think it could stay cold for a good portion of the month, however - storminess will be hard to come by. If we can eak one out, that will help us out, but I don't look for it to happen. There are some very light signals pointing to a potential storm system around the 10th of the month. This is about the only one I see. Despite the lack of storminess, I look for this to be the tipping point that really begins to push La Nina pattern out.
By January we should be entering a pattern of more storminess, with less Pacific influence ( if you haven't noticed, Pacific influence is not helpful for snow around these parts). I think we will start warm, but by the middle to later parts of the month we will see an active Southern Jet Stream brining storminess, as well as frequent cold shots coming in from the North.
I expect this to last into February and March, as weak El Nino should begin to develop. Weak El Nino, ESPECIALLY in the begining stages, is good for snow around here. When El Nino forms, it often amplifies the Southern Jet stream to cover the Southern portion of the United States. In it's begining stages, it is what snow lovers LOVE in the East, because the Jet is not strong enough to push the cold air out, resulting in frequent snow events. When El Nino Strengthens, the stormy pattern stays in place, however warm air is too often brought in due to the strength of the jet.
I think late January through March will practically be our winter in terms of snowfall. The first half of December will be very, very cold, however, it will quickly rebound and I look for much of the Eastern US to be relatively mild from Mid December to Early January. Keep in mind, that the pattern should be slowly breaking down, allowing for more storminess. In Early January, I look for alot of storminess in the Central US, with lots of snow in the Ohio Valley and Central Plains. By the middle of the month, well into March I look for that pattern to shift to the Eastern US.
Let me now translate this to what it will mean for our area.
Light snow in December. IF we get any kind of storm, it will probably be around the 10th of the month. Average temperatures. Around Christmas time, I look for warm temperatures, much like the pattern we're in now. I see the potential for Ice Storms around the later part of the month, following Christmas into early January.
December snowstorms - 1 (1-4") - Possilbe Ice Storm end of the month as we enter La Nina's final warm stand.
January- will be stormy for the Central US. It should be relatively nice here for the first half of the month, but a major pattern change should take hold by the later part of the month. Look for again, another virtually snowless month. After the 20th, I look for us to see more and more oppurtunites for snow.
January snowstorms 0 - Possible Ice Storm End of the Month, as we leave La Nina's final warm stand.
February - March will be our snowiest months. We should see lots of it, if what I'm forecasting comes true. I think we will see enough snow in these two months to push us above normal slightly for the year.
February Snowstorms - 4 - 1(1-4") 2 (4-8") 1(6-12")
March Snowstorms 3 - 2( 4-8") 1 (1-4")
In Summary: It will start slow, people will be begging for snow, but it will come at the end of the season.
Boone - 40"
Roanoke 23"
Galax/Hillsville/Independence - 35"
Bluefield - 45"
Blacksburg - 29"
Winston-Salem - 10"
Tri Cities - 10"
Lynchburg - 27"
Signals supporting my forecast:
- A weakening La Nina
- A NAO that has trended negative for the majority of the fall - these types of patterns, not related to La Nina, are very stubborn. A negative NAO means trough formation along the East Coast is more likely, and that means more storminess.
- A strong pacific Jet in November - - will probably not hold on most of the winter. One extreme always leads to another in the weather world.
- Finally, my gut.
*Disclaimer- This is the first time I have ever done a long range forecast. I am not that familiar and still learning a great deal about long range forecasting, so if I completely blow this one, cut me some slack :).
