So here's what is up: Sometime during the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame, a low pressure from the Pacific, will enter the Continental United States around the San Francisco Bay area. This is a good position for snow in the Mid Atlantic - and I'll tell you why. It is a general rule in meteorology, that any storm system will leave the US at the same lattitude, as it entered. So this means, that the storm will probably leave the US somewhere off the NC/VA coastline, a favorable position for us to get snow.
Now there are a few scenarios that I will try to explain.
Scenario One - The storm enters somewhere just South of San Francisco, and goes straight accross the country, leaving the East Coast somewhere around Hatteras, and kind of goes up the coast - but does not blow into a Noreaster. - this would spread a swath of moderate snow accross much of the Mid Atlantic from Boone, NC to New York City. I would say right now this would be a pretty good possibility.
Scenario 2: The storm enters much further South than expect, - sparing the Mid Atlantic from NOVA north. The Carolinas and Southern Virginia would see a major snowstorm with this track. I would say right now, this track is NOT LIKELY but nonetheless, still a possiblity worth mentioning.
Scenario 3: This would be the biggest storm for the whole East Coast. The storm "digs" kinda into the Tennessee Valley, rather than the Ohio Valley, and transfers it's energy to a developing storm off the Carolina Coast. This would spell a heavy wind blown snowstorm from the Southern Appalachians to New England. I would say, this has a chance to happen, the pattern is there, - however storms do often not transfer energy this far South. So while this is a possiblity, it is very hard to do. A track further north is historically, more likely, much like track 4. However - the signs are there for a track like this - too far out to tell.
Scenario 4: The Storm digs further North, into the Ohio Valley, redeveloping off of the DelMarva Penninsula. This would spread heavy snow from the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia into New England, perhaps a historic storm. With a major Ice Storm into Southern Virginia and North Carolina. I don't think it will go this far north - however this is a significant option - much like the President's Day Storm of 2003 - a storm that burried DC.
Scenario 5: I won't even post a map - the storm goes well west of us and we get rain - I DON'T THINK THIS IS AN OPTION AS OF TODAY.
Right now, I would say the storm would do something similar or in between tracks 1 and 3, and 4. Those seem to be the most likely tracks - anything other than that doesn't look like an option from here on out.
So from a week away, I feel like I can farely confidentely say there is a Major Winter Storm Threat from the Southern Appalachians up to the I 95 Co-ordor Christmas Day. Right now, I think the Southern Half of Virginia and Northern North Carolina stand a better chance of seeing ice than snow. The best chance of snow from here looks like it will be from the Shenandoah and Alleghany Highlands of Virginia to NOVA. There is just really no storm track that looks completely likely to miss them, and no storm track that looks warm enough to bring in ice. A storm track surpressed to the South, like Track 2, would miss these guys out on snow, but that doesn't look likely.
I will update throughout the week.
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