First flakes of the season..could we see a white Lane Stadium Thursday Night?

Above 2,500'.  Time Frame:  Thursday night into Friday.

The Setup:  A low pressure system will form along a deep trough in the Eastern US and ride up the coast - a CLASSIC setup for snow in our region.

If this were 5 weeks from now, we would be looking at widespread snowfall.  However, it is only early November, and the cold air has to catch up with the moisture.  This thing is very very far out, and will be hard to pull off, but the chance exists for several inches of snow west of the Blue Ridge Thursday night into Friday.

For this to happen, two storms, a low pressure coming from the NW in from Canada, will have to combine (phase) with a low pressure coming up from the Gulf somewhere around the Chesapeake - a setup that is rare even in Winter.  However, the potential exists.  Here's a graphic for easier understanding - -



This is what has to happen for widespread snow in the mountains - - not likely - - at least not yet.



The more likely scenario would be that the low pressure in the Southern US, sweeps up faster ahead of the lows coming in from the Northwest - - this is called progression.  This would mean just a cool rain for us, with snow flurries on the backside - no widespread snowfall.



This is the far more likely scenario



What could help us here?

There is a Hurrican in the Carribean.  How does the affect us?  This speeds up the Northern Stream energy, and at the sametime, cuts off (slows down) the Southern Stream engergy, bettering the chances of the two phasing.


It should be noted the chances of Scenario 1 happening are probably less than 40 percent, as for now.  But to have those kind of chances, the first day of November, is something worth forecasting and spending time reviewing nonetheless. 

One thing that looks certain ?  Flakes will at least fly over the Southern Appalachians by Friday.