My Winter Forecast

On the eve of the official start of meteorogical winter, I'm releasing my official Zach Robinson Winter Forecast.  Feast those eyes.

First of all, this coming winter will be nothing like last.  Last winter, we experienced 3 major snowstorms, each one dropping over 12 inches of snow.  We also recieved two six inch snowstorms, one in December, and one in March to kickoff and end the winter seasons. ( You can see my complete summary of last winter, HERE)  The six inch snows, are common, however, the multiple burrials of a foot plus of snow was not.  So, don't expect that again this year, it simply won't happen.

So what will happen?  Well, it's extremely evident that we have a moderate to strong La Nina in place, and when this happens, it virtually takes away the Southern jet stream.  As many of you know, this is where we get our storminess from.  There are signals showing that La Nina will weaken, and signals are already supporting the pattern breaking down somewhat allowing for more oppurtunities at colder air.  However, as long as the Southern Stream stays shunted south of us, snow will be hard to come by.  A storm or two will come frome the Pacific, and track across the nation, but these are mild, and make snow hard to come by.

December will start out cold.  I think it could stay cold for a good portion of the month, however - storminess will be hard to come by.  If we can eak one out, that will help us out, but I don't look for it to happen.  There are some very light signals pointing to a potential storm system around the 10th of the month.  This is about the only one I see.  Despite the lack of storminess, I look for this to be the tipping point that really begins to push La Nina pattern out. 

By January we should be entering a pattern of more storminess, with less Pacific influence ( if you haven't noticed, Pacific influence is not helpful for snow around these parts).  I think we will start warm, but by the middle to later parts of the month we will see an active Southern Jet Stream brining storminess, as well as frequent cold shots coming in from the North.

I expect this to last into February and March, as weak El Nino should begin to develop.  Weak El Nino, ESPECIALLY in the begining stages, is good for snow around here.  When El Nino forms, it often amplifies the Southern Jet stream to cover the Southern portion of the United States.  In it's begining stages,  it is what snow lovers LOVE in the East, because the Jet is not strong enough to push the cold air out, resulting in frequent snow events.  When El Nino Strengthens, the stormy pattern stays in place, however warm air is too often brought in due to the strength of the jet.

I think late January through March will practically be our winter in terms of snowfall.  The first half of December will be very, very cold, however, it will quickly rebound and I look for much of the Eastern US to be relatively mild from Mid December to Early January.  Keep in mind, that the pattern should be slowly breaking down, allowing for more storminess.  In Early January, I look for alot of storminess in the Central US, with lots of snow in the Ohio Valley and Central Plains.  By the middle of the month, well into March I look for that pattern to shift to the Eastern US. 

Let me now translate this to what it will mean for our area.

Light snow in December.   IF we get any kind of storm, it will probably be around the 10th of the month.  Average temperatures.  Around Christmas time, I look for warm temperatures, much like the pattern we're in now.  I see the potential for Ice Storms around the later part of the month, following Christmas into early January. 
December snowstorms - 1 (1-4") - Possilbe Ice Storm end of the month as we enter La Nina's final warm stand.

January-  will be stormy for the Central US.  It should be relatively nice here for the first half of the month, but a major pattern change should take hold by the later part of the month.  Look for again, another virtually snowless month.  After the 20th, I look for us to see more and more oppurtunites for snow. 
January snowstorms 0 - Possible Ice Storm End of the Month, as we leave La Nina's final warm stand.

February - March will be our snowiest months.  We should see lots of it, if what I'm forecasting comes true. I think we will see enough snow in these two months to push us above normal slightly for the year.
February Snowstorms - 4 - 1(1-4") 2 (4-8") 1(6-12")
March Snowstorms 3 - 2( 4-8") 1 (1-4")

In Summary:  It will start slow, people will be begging for snow, but it will come at the end of the season.
Boone - 40"
Roanoke 23"
Galax/Hillsville/Independence - 35"
Bluefield - 45"
Blacksburg - 29"
Winston-Salem - 10"
Tri Cities - 10"
Lynchburg - 27"

Signals supporting my forecast:

• A weakening La Nina
• A NAO that has trended negative for the majority of the fall - these types of patterns, not related to La Nina, are very stubborn.  A negative NAO means  trough formation along the East Coast is more likely, and that means more storminess.
• A strong pacific Jet in November - - will probably not hold on most of the winter.  One extreme always leads to another in the weather world.
• Finally, my gut.

*Disclaimer- This is the first time I have ever done a long range forecast.  I am not that familiar and still learning a great deal about long range forecasting, so if I completely blow this one, cut me some slack :).

I went a month without blogging.

Today - I discovered Twitter.  Apparently I'm behind the curve. Follow me at @zachhrobinson.

Get Excited.  Zach Robinson's official winter forecast comes out tommorow.  Get reallllllllllllly excited.

A couple of thought's.

1. Please, please, please, if you haven't, read Boy Meets Girl.  It completely changed the way I view women, friendships, dating, purity, my relationship with Christ.  Everything.  It is a good read for any young adult, single or taken.
2. I LOVE my parents.  I am so thankful for them, and realize it more and more each and every day.  I wish I would have treated them better, and still do, but I can not possibly express how much I am grwoing to appreciate everything they have done for us over the years.
3. James 1:12, and James 4:7.
4. Jason Aldean's new CD, My Kinda Party, is probably my favorite country album of the past 3 years.  It's good.
5. FINALLY - Tyrod Taylor, easily the most accomplished qb ever to play at Virginia Tech, played his final home game this past weekend.  He was garnered 1st team all ACC selection today, and will go down as one of the greatest qb's to ever play in the ACC.  Gonna be different not seeing him on the sidelines next year.  Hokienation will miss him. 

Everlasting.

"Your light will shine, when all else fades, neverending, your glory goes beyond all fame. And the cry of my heart, is to bring you praise, from the inside out, oh my soul cries out"

Do you ever just feel like living for God is really worth it?  Is giving up our lives, so that we may truely live, really worth it?  I mean, afterall, being souled out to Christ isn't exactly easy. 

So far, for me, it has been a continuously daily struggle.  A struggle that agonizes me to the core.  I want to grow in my faith, yes.  But often times when I truely ask myself, I just want the end results - without putting the work in.  To grow, it requires work and discipline on our parts. 

Staying focussed on Christ, on our ultimate goal of glorifying God is just as difficult.  With my own personal experience, these past two weeks have been a mess.  From a bad grade in statistics, to work, to wondering about a girl, it is so easy to get distracted in life, and it shows.  When I lose focus, bad habits begin to creep back into my life.  I start to curse.  Lustfull thoughts are harder to get rid of.  The old insensitive "jerk" comes back up inside of me., and it AGONZIZES me.  I find no joy in any of those things.  It bites me to the bone, yet I continually fall because I continually lose focus of Christ.

Underoath has lyrics that say

"This time I'll be nervous, cause I can't see your hands, in front me"

This song I feel like describes our battles as Christians.  We trip, we stumble, sometimes we feel God's presence, sometimes we don't.  Often times, with me, I feel about 100 miles from God, but I know he is stilll there.

So how do I regain focus?  To me, one thing that helps is listening to Christian music.  Find some artists that are good, and load up that ipod.  If you listen to your ipod as much as I do, and you have Christian lyris flowing into your head, imagine the possibilities.  Think about how much differently you would live your life if you listened to just 20 minutes of Christian music a day, and truely take it in.  Try it.

Another thing is pray.  Make it a point to get on your knees and pray, every night.  Even if it's only for 20 seconds.  It will help you focus on actually talking to God, and not letting your mind wander.  If you get in the habit of doing this - I PROMISE - it will make a difference.

Spend time in the Word.  This is my least favorite.  Who wants to read the Bible when you have litterally almost everything a 20 year old man could want to do within walking distance?  Make time.  Even if it's five minutes.  Don't read more then what you feel being led to.  If you feel like God is telling you to read a verse, then read a verse.  Don't feel "guilted" into reading enough.  Soak up God's word, when it just becomes reading, and not listening, it's not doing any good. 

On the same token, journal.  Journal about what you read - write letters to God.  Write about your struggles.  Write about your worries, your fears, your praises, write it all.

So going back to my original question?  Is it worth it?  Is giving up my life for Christ really worth it?  Without a doubt yes.  I'm miserable when I stray, and I'm comforted when I am in the Word.   It is well worth the struggle.  Just to know that God will work out all my problems - my grades, my friends, my emotions, my worries, is reason enough to give it all to him.

Note - I know I'm not perfect, I don't strive to come accross as i am.  I am simply sharing things I struggle with and how to help get back on track for those who are struggling as well.  If anyone has anything or any questions, just feel free to send me a message.

Thanks - and I'll leave you with this verse.

James 4:7  "Humble yourself before the Lord, resist the Devil, and he will flee from you" - memorize this, so when temptation comes, it comes to your head. 

Peace Out.

First flakes of the season..could we see a white Lane Stadium Thursday Night?

Above 2,500'.  Time Frame:  Thursday night into Friday.

The Setup:  A low pressure system will form along a deep trough in the Eastern US and ride up the coast - a CLASSIC setup for snow in our region.

If this were 5 weeks from now, we would be looking at widespread snowfall.  However, it is only early November, and the cold air has to catch up with the moisture.  This thing is very very far out, and will be hard to pull off, but the chance exists for several inches of snow west of the Blue Ridge Thursday night into Friday.

For this to happen, two storms, a low pressure coming from the NW in from Canada, will have to combine (phase) with a low pressure coming up from the Gulf somewhere around the Chesapeake - a setup that is rare even in Winter.  However, the potential exists.  Here's a graphic for easier understanding - -



This is what has to happen for widespread snow in the mountains - - not likely - - at least not yet.



The more likely scenario would be that the low pressure in the Southern US, sweeps up faster ahead of the lows coming in from the Northwest - - this is called progression.  This would mean just a cool rain for us, with snow flurries on the backside - no widespread snowfall.



This is the far more likely scenario



What could help us here?

There is a Hurrican in the Carribean.  How does the affect us?  This speeds up the Northern Stream energy, and at the sametime, cuts off (slows down) the Southern Stream engergy, bettering the chances of the two phasing.


It should be noted the chances of Scenario 1 happening are probably less than 40 percent, as for now.  But to have those kind of chances, the first day of November, is something worth forecasting and spending time reviewing nonetheless. 

One thing that looks certain ?  Flakes will at least fly over the Southern Appalachians by Friday.





Sneak Peak at the winter forecast...

It all depends on the NAO.    If it is negative, we will have a more amplified Jet Stream.  For you non weather nerds, in simple terms that means a much much greater chance at storms along the East Coast, AS WELL, as a pattern favorable to open up the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.  Many of you know that this is essential for us to get snow.

If it is positive, the flow becomes more zonal, meaning a lesser chance of storms, and an even less likely chance of tapping into Gulf moisture.  Let me give you a graphic...

Top 23 thoughts for the day...

Thoughts for the day...

1) It is so much warmer in Lynchburg than it is back home, in the Blue Ridge.

2) Every 19 year old should read Josh Harriss' "Boy Meets Girl" - It is completely changing my whole approach to dating, and relationships with the opposite sex.  For me, it is really helping me grow in my faith, but at the same time helping me realize the value of having a christ centered relationship.

3) If Virginia Tech would not have lost to Boise State, we would be the number 1 team in the nation.

4) A Winter forecast will be coming in early November.  If early trends continue, get ready to use those shovels.

5) Everyone should read a chapter of Proverbs everday.  Just try it, you'll see.

6) My mother is an amazing cook.  The past two weekends she has cooked for me everytime I have been home.  If you want some amazing BBQ, call her.

7) It will rain tonight through tommorow morning.

8) I hate statistics.

9) I hate statistics.

10) I hate.... you get the point.

11) I thought Desean Jackson, a Philadelphia Eagles wideout was seriously injured after sustaining this hit.

12) Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball. The Yankees would agree.

13) Looks like me trying to steal home plate.

14) Start reading more, wheher it be online, in books, magazines, or whatever.  A convocation speaker here at Liberty suggested that if we read 1 hour a day, by the time were like 28 or something, we would have read around 540 books.  That's alot of knowledge.  I have started, not an hour a day, but reading more, and I don't seem to be as tired.  Seems odd, but at least that's one positive.

15)  Do I really have 10 thoughts left?

16)  I can't wait til Thanksgiving week.  Deer hunting and working trees, and home cooking.  Maybe some snow too.

17) Everyone with a free Sunday should come to Octoberfest at Fincastle Baptist Church, on October 31st.  I'm using this chance for extra credit in some classes.  Plus, it should be fun. 

18) The preacher of the aftermentioned church, actually came to evangelism class Monday night to talk about creative ways to evangelize.  The end result?  We ended up playing let's make a deal, and he actually gave away close to 50 dollars in prizes.

19)  Really Brett Favre?  In case you haven't noticed, your a grandfather.  I don't want to believe you sent pictures of your 41 year old male genetilia to a 27 year old super model.  Then again, you also said you retired like 72 times, so it's kind of hard to believe whatever you tell us.

20) Radford University is a fun place to hang out.

21) This explains alot.

22) Good luck Austin Larrowe at the National FFA Convention this week!

23)  I really hate Zack Hall's love for the Green Bay Packers

Who says these mountains ain't real?

Check it out; Mt. Leconte Tennessee recorderd approximately 3.5" of snow over Monday-Tuesday. 

Mt. Leconte is in the Great Smokie Mountains sits at an elevation of 6593'.   Snow this far south and high up is not uncommon this time of year.  In fact, snow has been recorded as early as September 9th, in Bluefield, Va, at approximately 2500'. 

Here are some pictures from the recent snow at Mt. Leconte.