Catch me if You Can

Alright here's the setup.  Low Pressure looks to track from the Gulf states to somewhere around the Tidewater Region Tuesday - Thursday.

This is a traditional snow track for all of central and SWVA.

Naturally - the mountains look likely to get a heavy snowfall.  This is Boone, Galax, Bluefield, Blacksburg, Roanoke Valley, up through The Shenandoah, Winchester - 6"+ looks like a good call from here out.

The problem forms when you go immediately east of the Blue Ridge.  Mount Airy, NC, Rocky Mount, VA, Lynchburg, VA - - all places that look to be within 20 miles of where the rain/snow line sets up.

You see, there is no cold high pressure system to the north stationed over New York. 

That means, winds that form from the SE, instead of running into a cold dome of air, will be running into marginally cold air, and only places that are higher in elevation/further west will be able to escape the rain snow line.

This afternoon, models are converging on a track that takes the low from New Orleans, to somewhere around Williamsburg/Virginia Beach. 

With a track like this - the rain snow line will set up close to the aftermentioned cities.

I do think it will set up South and East of these cities.  However, as the storm progresses, I think the rains now line pushes into these areas for a period of time, and then back east. Resulting in mixed precipitation for a time.

Here are my snow maps

Areas EAST of the black line in Virginia - Greatest forecast Uncertainty. 

What Could go wrong?

Well, this thing could slide off the coast, shifting this heavy snow area East of us - but that does not look likely.

Or, the storm tracks further inland, and backs the rain snow line up further west than already projected, and Lynchburg, to Mount Airy, get mainly rain.  While up in the mountain, it snows.

As of now... The below is the most likely scenario. 

I WILL SAY - IF THIS TRACK HOLDS LYNCHBURG SHOULD STAY PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL

Check back later for update.