I didn't want Salmon, I said it four times!

Alright folks.

Snow is on the way.  Push it back about a day.  To Wednesday late morning/midday for Carroll County.

Here's the setup.  A storm system will ride up the coast Tommorow Night.  This storm system will bring in some light precipitation.  MAINLY UNDER A HALF INCH.

This looks to fall as mainly Rain, possibly some snow mixed.  IF THIS INITIAL BATCH IS ALL SNOW, RAISE TOTALS ABOUT 4".  Do not think this is probable, but certainly a possibility.

Trailing this main area of low pressure, will be what we call an Upper Level Low.  These sytems are all of the following

• fast
• virgourous
• COLD CORED

While we are experiencing light rain Tuesday Night, Northern Alabama, will be most likely getting heavy snow.  You see, these ULL's as we like to call them, are cold centered.  They cool from the top down.  It's called dynamic cooling.  In a ULL scenario, you want the ULL to track right about close to where you are.  You get under the best lift, best dynamics, and most intense snow bands this way.

This looks to happen on a line Roughly from Oxford, Mississippi, to Knoxville, to Roanoke, To DC, To Long Island - this will be the area that sees the best snows.

Higher Elevations - will see more snow - the atmosphere will take less time to cool.  The atmosphere in these situations cools from the top to the bottom, so the higher up you are, the less atmosphere has to cool.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD.  Snowfall rates will be very high.  It is not uncommon to get thunder and lightning, and rates up to 3" an hour.  It will come hard and fast.
Okay - - - What could go wrong with this forecast.  ULL's are VERY tough to predict.  ONE Computer model run, takes the main area of precip with the ULL North and west of us.  If this happens, cut snow totals in half - to less than 3" everywhere.  THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, It is still within the realm of possiblities, so don't write this one in stone JUST YET.

These type of systems are usually what brings the mountains spring snowstorms.  So Elevation does make a difference.  However, it is the middle of January - I don't think it will play that big of a deal.  For this same reason, I have also raised snow totals just a hair in areas EAST of the Mountains. 

For those who don't like to read maps.  

Here is my city by city break down.

SOUTH OF ROANOKE

Bristol/Kingsport/Wise - 3-6"
Galax/Carroll/Hillsville/Floyd/Bluefield - 6-9"
Blacksburg/Christiansburg/NRV 6-9"
Roanoke - 5-8"
Lynchburg/Bedford 4-7"
Martinsville/Danville/Farmville - 1-2"
Appomatax - Altavista - 2-4"

NORTH OF ROANOKE:

Buena Vista - 7-11"
ENTIRE SHENANDOAH VALLEY 8-12"
Western Piedmont (from areas just east of Front Royal down to Nelson County, Counties on the OTHER side of the Parkway) - 5-8"


NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Sterling - 6-10"
Leesburg 7-11"
Alexandria 5-8"


Other Cities:

Richmond - 1-2"
Fredericksburg 2-4"


NORTH CAROLINA:

Greensboro - less than an 1"
Winston Salem 1-2"
Mount Airy 3-5"
Boone - 6-9"
Sparta  - 6-9"

Now for the maps.....

One Last thing - - these ammounts say 6-9", don't assume the high end.  Often times, the highest number is localized.  I think this will be the case in this storm system.  It very well could snow 7" in Lynchburg and 5" in Bedford - it all just depends on where the heaviest bands setup.

Every single computer model puts out -.5-.75" of precipitation for Lynchburg in the form of snow.  Only one puts out .1-.25" of snow

That is equivelant of 4-8", or 1-3".  Time will tell

One last thing - - - if you wake up Wednesday morning in Carroll County, and the ground is white, - - this is not your mainstorm.  This is bonus to what you will have.  Again, not probable, but possible.  THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE ULL arrives.

And with that, I need sleep.  Night to all.

Catch me if You Can

Alright here's the setup.  Low Pressure looks to track from the Gulf states to somewhere around the Tidewater Region Tuesday - Thursday.

This is a traditional snow track for all of central and SWVA.

Naturally - the mountains look likely to get a heavy snowfall.  This is Boone, Galax, Bluefield, Blacksburg, Roanoke Valley, up through The Shenandoah, Winchester - 6"+ looks like a good call from here out.

The problem forms when you go immediately east of the Blue Ridge.  Mount Airy, NC, Rocky Mount, VA, Lynchburg, VA - - all places that look to be within 20 miles of where the rain/snow line sets up.

You see, there is no cold high pressure system to the north stationed over New York. 

That means, winds that form from the SE, instead of running into a cold dome of air, will be running into marginally cold air, and only places that are higher in elevation/further west will be able to escape the rain snow line.

This afternoon, models are converging on a track that takes the low from New Orleans, to somewhere around Williamsburg/Virginia Beach. 

With a track like this - the rain snow line will set up close to the aftermentioned cities.

I do think it will set up South and East of these cities.  However, as the storm progresses, I think the rains now line pushes into these areas for a period of time, and then back east. Resulting in mixed precipitation for a time.

Here are my snow maps

Areas EAST of the black line in Virginia - Greatest forecast Uncertainty. 

What Could go wrong?

Well, this thing could slide off the coast, shifting this heavy snow area East of us - but that does not look likely.

Or, the storm tracks further inland, and backs the rain snow line up further west than already projected, and Lynchburg, to Mount Airy, get mainly rain.  While up in the mountain, it snows.

As of now... The below is the most likely scenario. 

I WILL SAY - IF THIS TRACK HOLDS LYNCHBURG SHOULD STAY PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL

Check back later for update.