Someone stacked the deck...

Here in Carroll County anyways.  Last weekend a clipper dropped 5" of snow.  This past weekend, a cold front supposed to be all rain, dropped around 1-3" of snow depending on your elevation.  What's so good about this you ask?  These two snows, both within a week of each other, in a La Nina winter, are very very rare exceptions.  We usually don't see accumulation of snow out of a clipper, and very very rarely, do we see a cold front come through, with just mainly snow.  Blame it on the cold air.  It has felt like February for the first half of the month, and the pattern shows no signs of letting up until after Christmas. 

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The gun is loaded:

Let me try to explain this to you in simple terms.  Earlier this winter, we were seeing storm systems slam into British Columbia, and the Pacific Northwest.  It is an old saying that wherever a storm enters on the west coast, it will leave at that lattitude on the East Coast.  While we haven't seen a single Nor-Easter yet this year, we haven't had a storm dig far enough south in the Jet stream to do this.  This was the pattern til about the first of December.  However, each time a storm would run this way, the cold air, (The cold air is always in the trough, a trough is essential to storminess), it would push the trough further east. This is the pattern depicted in the picture above.  To the East of the cold front, the atmosphere was simply warm, with ridging going on.  Eventually though, the storminess, and a Block over Greenland, forced the Trough to set up over the Eastern US. ( Below)

Here we have the current pattern.  It is incredibly warm in the SW, with records being set all over the place in California.  While in the Eastern United States, the trough has set up, and given the coldest start to the Winter in recent memory.  The one problem, there is no southern storm track.  When this happens, it is hard to get snow in the winter months.  Our snows here in the South come from the Gulf of Mexico.  We are always on the fine line between snow and rain, warmth and cold, due to our lattitude.  However, we have seen a couple a system dive in from the NW that brought us several inches of snow.  Even Yesterday, we had a brief respite of the pattern described earlier, only the air was so cold on the front end of it, what is usually rain turned out to be snow in the Mountains.  This type of pattern is good, for cold weather but not for snow.  So now, onto how the gun is loaded.  I'm about to show you.

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We have two oppurtunities for significant winter weather over the next week.  The first will be a rather light to moderate event.  An overrunning event, that won't be a monster, but will probably cause some headaches. It's a very simple setup.  The warm air to the South will try to fight the cold air to the north.  A weak wave of low pressure will form somewhere in the Tennessee Valley, finally a Southern piece of energy, albeit weak, we will finally have a classic setup for Southern Virginia.  The problems:  It is a fast mover, and weak, and the track will be huge to if we get snow, snow and ice, ice, or rain.  Here is the setup.

Scenario One:  This is a good setup for snow in the Mid Atlantic. Ice, in the Kentucky, Tennesee Regions. Someone will get several inches.  Fine tuning where, is tough.  In the first scenario, the cold air surpresses the storm somewhat, allowing the cold air to remain along the Eastern slopes of the Appalachians, providing a significant ice storm for the Piedmont of NC and Virginia, and several inches of snow from the Mountains of North Carolina up through the entire Southern Half of Virginia. 

Scenario 2:  This is a good setup for snow over the Shenandoah into DC.  and Ice into the Southern half of Virginia, with rain over North Carolina and Kentucky.  Right now, the models are showing this scenario. 

Really, there is no difference, except the placement of the low, and how far north the warm air can intrude.  Two things: 

1. This will be a fast mover, no one should see more than 6" of snow, or .25" of ice.  I think Virginia will get the main beef from this snow.  If it sets up North or South, or right over Roanoke, is where we have to fine tune.  One thing we could have going for us is this.  The cold air is so incredibly deep, that even if the warm air does nose in, it may not matter.  We saw this last year twice.  Two "Miller B's", (storms that traditionally bring warm air and rain), rode to the west of us, however the cold air was so deep and hard to dislodge is ended up snowing with ice at the end.  This could happen again, time will tell.  Right now, my early early call is 2-4" of snow followed by a layer of ice. 
2. This storm sets the stage for the next one.  It could very well be a good opening act, to the main show. There are some signs showing this could be a historical storm, or a no storm.  Many of the early signals are lining up with the January 1996 storm that obliterated the Mid Atlantic. Or, it could dissappoint, and the main show might not even come to the stage at all.

I will post on this storm maybe later tonight or tommorow.  It's on and off the models.  Also, if anyone is interested in joining an in depth weather discussion, check out Kevin Myatt's Blog at Roanoke.com

Sorry for the lack of posts

I've worked 7 out of the past 8 days, and it's finals week so I've been busy.  Just a quick update.  If you read my winter outlook - I'm on track so far.  But that could change.  We have another oppurtunity at light snow this weekend, with another chance coming midweek at perhaps more significant snow.  The pattern continues to be ripe and to be honest shows no sign of letting up like I thought.  Highs Monday and Tuesday might not hit 13 degrees.  Winter is here.

I will post more beggining next week.  Everyone stay warm!

Well, it snowed.

Abou 4" widespread.  My forecast was spot on.  I'm back at LU, and already watching the potential for another storm into next weekend.

Away from the weather some random thoughts

• How about them Hokies?
• Really, 8 days left at Liberty til' I'm gone for a month?!
• I miss baseball.
• As much as I hate the Yanks, I love Derek Jeter.  He's what baseball is about.
• Zack Hall owes me 20 bucks.  Thats 2-0 on sports bets this fall.
• Tech vs. Stanford - - this will be fun.
• New post later this week. Stay warm :)

Snow this weekend...

Here's my initial snowmap for the storm this weekend.  I will post an update later tonight.

My Winter Forecast

On the eve of the official start of meteorogical winter, I'm releasing my official Zach Robinson Winter Forecast.  Feast those eyes.

First of all, this coming winter will be nothing like last.  Last winter, we experienced 3 major snowstorms, each one dropping over 12 inches of snow.  We also recieved two six inch snowstorms, one in December, and one in March to kickoff and end the winter seasons. ( You can see my complete summary of last winter, HERE)  The six inch snows, are common, however, the multiple burrials of a foot plus of snow was not.  So, don't expect that again this year, it simply won't happen.

So what will happen?  Well, it's extremely evident that we have a moderate to strong La Nina in place, and when this happens, it virtually takes away the Southern jet stream.  As many of you know, this is where we get our storminess from.  There are signals showing that La Nina will weaken, and signals are already supporting the pattern breaking down somewhat allowing for more oppurtunities at colder air.  However, as long as the Southern Stream stays shunted south of us, snow will be hard to come by.  A storm or two will come frome the Pacific, and track across the nation, but these are mild, and make snow hard to come by.

December will start out cold.  I think it could stay cold for a good portion of the month, however - storminess will be hard to come by.  If we can eak one out, that will help us out, but I don't look for it to happen.  There are some very light signals pointing to a potential storm system around the 10th of the month.  This is about the only one I see.  Despite the lack of storminess, I look for this to be the tipping point that really begins to push La Nina pattern out. 

By January we should be entering a pattern of more storminess, with less Pacific influence ( if you haven't noticed, Pacific influence is not helpful for snow around these parts).  I think we will start warm, but by the middle to later parts of the month we will see an active Southern Jet Stream brining storminess, as well as frequent cold shots coming in from the North.

I expect this to last into February and March, as weak El Nino should begin to develop.  Weak El Nino, ESPECIALLY in the begining stages, is good for snow around here.  When El Nino forms, it often amplifies the Southern Jet stream to cover the Southern portion of the United States.  In it's begining stages,  it is what snow lovers LOVE in the East, because the Jet is not strong enough to push the cold air out, resulting in frequent snow events.  When El Nino Strengthens, the stormy pattern stays in place, however warm air is too often brought in due to the strength of the jet.

I think late January through March will practically be our winter in terms of snowfall.  The first half of December will be very, very cold, however, it will quickly rebound and I look for much of the Eastern US to be relatively mild from Mid December to Early January.  Keep in mind, that the pattern should be slowly breaking down, allowing for more storminess.  In Early January, I look for alot of storminess in the Central US, with lots of snow in the Ohio Valley and Central Plains.  By the middle of the month, well into March I look for that pattern to shift to the Eastern US. 

Let me now translate this to what it will mean for our area.

Light snow in December.   IF we get any kind of storm, it will probably be around the 10th of the month.  Average temperatures.  Around Christmas time, I look for warm temperatures, much like the pattern we're in now.  I see the potential for Ice Storms around the later part of the month, following Christmas into early January. 
December snowstorms - 1 (1-4") - Possilbe Ice Storm end of the month as we enter La Nina's final warm stand.

January-  will be stormy for the Central US.  It should be relatively nice here for the first half of the month, but a major pattern change should take hold by the later part of the month.  Look for again, another virtually snowless month.  After the 20th, I look for us to see more and more oppurtunites for snow. 
January snowstorms 0 - Possible Ice Storm End of the Month, as we leave La Nina's final warm stand.

February - March will be our snowiest months.  We should see lots of it, if what I'm forecasting comes true. I think we will see enough snow in these two months to push us above normal slightly for the year.
February Snowstorms - 4 - 1(1-4") 2 (4-8") 1(6-12")
March Snowstorms 3 - 2( 4-8") 1 (1-4")

In Summary:  It will start slow, people will be begging for snow, but it will come at the end of the season.
Boone - 40"
Roanoke 23"
Galax/Hillsville/Independence - 35"
Bluefield - 45"
Blacksburg - 29"
Winston-Salem - 10"
Tri Cities - 10"
Lynchburg - 27"

Signals supporting my forecast:

• A weakening La Nina
• A NAO that has trended negative for the majority of the fall - these types of patterns, not related to La Nina, are very stubborn.  A negative NAO means  trough formation along the East Coast is more likely, and that means more storminess.
• A strong pacific Jet in November - - will probably not hold on most of the winter.  One extreme always leads to another in the weather world.
• Finally, my gut.

*Disclaimer- This is the first time I have ever done a long range forecast.  I am not that familiar and still learning a great deal about long range forecasting, so if I completely blow this one, cut me some slack :).

I went a month without blogging.

Today - I discovered Twitter.  Apparently I'm behind the curve. Follow me at @zachhrobinson.

Get Excited.  Zach Robinson's official winter forecast comes out tommorow.  Get reallllllllllllly excited.

A couple of thought's.

1. Please, please, please, if you haven't, read Boy Meets Girl.  It completely changed the way I view women, friendships, dating, purity, my relationship with Christ.  Everything.  It is a good read for any young adult, single or taken.
2. I LOVE my parents.  I am so thankful for them, and realize it more and more each and every day.  I wish I would have treated them better, and still do, but I can not possibly express how much I am grwoing to appreciate everything they have done for us over the years.
3. James 1:12, and James 4:7.
4. Jason Aldean's new CD, My Kinda Party, is probably my favorite country album of the past 3 years.  It's good.
5. FINALLY - Tyrod Taylor, easily the most accomplished qb ever to play at Virginia Tech, played his final home game this past weekend.  He was garnered 1st team all ACC selection today, and will go down as one of the greatest qb's to ever play in the ACC.  Gonna be different not seeing him on the sidelines next year.  Hokienation will miss him. 

Everlasting.

"Your light will shine, when all else fades, neverending, your glory goes beyond all fame. And the cry of my heart, is to bring you praise, from the inside out, oh my soul cries out"

Do you ever just feel like living for God is really worth it?  Is giving up our lives, so that we may truely live, really worth it?  I mean, afterall, being souled out to Christ isn't exactly easy. 

So far, for me, it has been a continuously daily struggle.  A struggle that agonizes me to the core.  I want to grow in my faith, yes.  But often times when I truely ask myself, I just want the end results - without putting the work in.  To grow, it requires work and discipline on our parts. 

Staying focussed on Christ, on our ultimate goal of glorifying God is just as difficult.  With my own personal experience, these past two weeks have been a mess.  From a bad grade in statistics, to work, to wondering about a girl, it is so easy to get distracted in life, and it shows.  When I lose focus, bad habits begin to creep back into my life.  I start to curse.  Lustfull thoughts are harder to get rid of.  The old insensitive "jerk" comes back up inside of me., and it AGONZIZES me.  I find no joy in any of those things.  It bites me to the bone, yet I continually fall because I continually lose focus of Christ.

Underoath has lyrics that say

"This time I'll be nervous, cause I can't see your hands, in front me"

This song I feel like describes our battles as Christians.  We trip, we stumble, sometimes we feel God's presence, sometimes we don't.  Often times, with me, I feel about 100 miles from God, but I know he is stilll there.

So how do I regain focus?  To me, one thing that helps is listening to Christian music.  Find some artists that are good, and load up that ipod.  If you listen to your ipod as much as I do, and you have Christian lyris flowing into your head, imagine the possibilities.  Think about how much differently you would live your life if you listened to just 20 minutes of Christian music a day, and truely take it in.  Try it.

Another thing is pray.  Make it a point to get on your knees and pray, every night.  Even if it's only for 20 seconds.  It will help you focus on actually talking to God, and not letting your mind wander.  If you get in the habit of doing this - I PROMISE - it will make a difference.

Spend time in the Word.  This is my least favorite.  Who wants to read the Bible when you have litterally almost everything a 20 year old man could want to do within walking distance?  Make time.  Even if it's five minutes.  Don't read more then what you feel being led to.  If you feel like God is telling you to read a verse, then read a verse.  Don't feel "guilted" into reading enough.  Soak up God's word, when it just becomes reading, and not listening, it's not doing any good. 

On the same token, journal.  Journal about what you read - write letters to God.  Write about your struggles.  Write about your worries, your fears, your praises, write it all.

So going back to my original question?  Is it worth it?  Is giving up my life for Christ really worth it?  Without a doubt yes.  I'm miserable when I stray, and I'm comforted when I am in the Word.   It is well worth the struggle.  Just to know that God will work out all my problems - my grades, my friends, my emotions, my worries, is reason enough to give it all to him.

Note - I know I'm not perfect, I don't strive to come accross as i am.  I am simply sharing things I struggle with and how to help get back on track for those who are struggling as well.  If anyone has anything or any questions, just feel free to send me a message.

Thanks - and I'll leave you with this verse.

James 4:7  "Humble yourself before the Lord, resist the Devil, and he will flee from you" - memorize this, so when temptation comes, it comes to your head. 

Peace Out.