First flakes of the season..could we see a white Lane Stadium Thursday Night?

Above 2,500'.  Time Frame:  Thursday night into Friday.

The Setup:  A low pressure system will form along a deep trough in the Eastern US and ride up the coast - a CLASSIC setup for snow in our region.

If this were 5 weeks from now, we would be looking at widespread snowfall.  However, it is only early November, and the cold air has to catch up with the moisture.  This thing is very very far out, and will be hard to pull off, but the chance exists for several inches of snow west of the Blue Ridge Thursday night into Friday.

For this to happen, two storms, a low pressure coming from the NW in from Canada, will have to combine (phase) with a low pressure coming up from the Gulf somewhere around the Chesapeake - a setup that is rare even in Winter.  However, the potential exists.  Here's a graphic for easier understanding - -



This is what has to happen for widespread snow in the mountains - - not likely - - at least not yet.



The more likely scenario would be that the low pressure in the Southern US, sweeps up faster ahead of the lows coming in from the Northwest - - this is called progression.  This would mean just a cool rain for us, with snow flurries on the backside - no widespread snowfall.



This is the far more likely scenario



What could help us here?

There is a Hurrican in the Carribean.  How does the affect us?  This speeds up the Northern Stream energy, and at the sametime, cuts off (slows down) the Southern Stream engergy, bettering the chances of the two phasing.


It should be noted the chances of Scenario 1 happening are probably less than 40 percent, as for now.  But to have those kind of chances, the first day of November, is something worth forecasting and spending time reviewing nonetheless. 

One thing that looks certain ?  Flakes will at least fly over the Southern Appalachians by Friday.





Sneak Peak at the winter forecast...

It all depends on the NAO.    If it is negative, we will have a more amplified Jet Stream.  For you non weather nerds, in simple terms that means a much much greater chance at storms along the East Coast, AS WELL, as a pattern favorable to open up the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.  Many of you know that this is essential for us to get snow.

If it is positive, the flow becomes more zonal, meaning a lesser chance of storms, and an even less likely chance of tapping into Gulf moisture.  Let me give you a graphic...

Top 23 thoughts for the day...

Thoughts for the day...

1) It is so much warmer in Lynchburg than it is back home, in the Blue Ridge.

2) Every 19 year old should read Josh Harriss' "Boy Meets Girl" - It is completely changing my whole approach to dating, and relationships with the opposite sex.  For me, it is really helping me grow in my faith, but at the same time helping me realize the value of having a christ centered relationship.

3) If Virginia Tech would not have lost to Boise State, we would be the number 1 team in the nation.

4) A Winter forecast will be coming in early November.  If early trends continue, get ready to use those shovels.

5) Everyone should read a chapter of Proverbs everday.  Just try it, you'll see.

6) My mother is an amazing cook.  The past two weekends she has cooked for me everytime I have been home.  If you want some amazing BBQ, call her.

7) It will rain tonight through tommorow morning.

8) I hate statistics.

9) I hate statistics.

10) I hate.... you get the point.

11) I thought Desean Jackson, a Philadelphia Eagles wideout was seriously injured after sustaining this hit.

12) Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball. The Yankees would agree.

13) Looks like me trying to steal home plate.

14) Start reading more, wheher it be online, in books, magazines, or whatever.  A convocation speaker here at Liberty suggested that if we read 1 hour a day, by the time were like 28 or something, we would have read around 540 books.  That's alot of knowledge.  I have started, not an hour a day, but reading more, and I don't seem to be as tired.  Seems odd, but at least that's one positive.

15)  Do I really have 10 thoughts left?

16)  I can't wait til Thanksgiving week.  Deer hunting and working trees, and home cooking.  Maybe some snow too.

17) Everyone with a free Sunday should come to Octoberfest at Fincastle Baptist Church, on October 31st.  I'm using this chance for extra credit in some classes.  Plus, it should be fun. 

18) The preacher of the aftermentioned church, actually came to evangelism class Monday night to talk about creative ways to evangelize.  The end result?  We ended up playing let's make a deal, and he actually gave away close to 50 dollars in prizes.

19)  Really Brett Favre?  In case you haven't noticed, your a grandfather.  I don't want to believe you sent pictures of your 41 year old male genetilia to a 27 year old super model.  Then again, you also said you retired like 72 times, so it's kind of hard to believe whatever you tell us.

20) Radford University is a fun place to hang out.

21) This explains alot.

22) Good luck Austin Larrowe at the National FFA Convention this week!

23)  I really hate Zack Hall's love for the Green Bay Packers

Who says these mountains ain't real?

Check it out; Mt. Leconte Tennessee recorderd approximately 3.5" of snow over Monday-Tuesday. 

Mt. Leconte is in the Great Smokie Mountains sits at an elevation of 6593'.   Snow this far south and high up is not uncommon this time of year.  In fact, snow has been recorded as early as September 9th, in Bluefield, Va, at approximately 2500'. 

Here are some pictures from the recent snow at Mt. Leconte.

I'mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm not good enough.

I'm a sophomore/junior at LU.  This however, is my first year.   Being Liberty University, I'm required to take some classes not required at most liberal arts colleges.  One of these, being evangelism. 

I have evenagelism Monday's from 5-8.  Talk about a long class.  In this class, the focus has been learning in a practical way to share your faith.  We've been presented numerous ways, ideas, etc. etc. on how, when, where, to evangelize.  It is a very interesting class, and the professor's, David Wheeler is one of the most passionate people I've ever met.  Come to one of his classes, and within 30 seconds, you'll realize how much he cares about bringing people to the lord.

Yesterday, in class, we were presented with this question.  " How many of you are comfortable sharing your faith"?  The more I thought about it, the more I realized I wasn't, and I had never really truely evangelized to anyone. Anyone who knows me, knows I struggle with many things.  I struggle with being compassionate.  I struggle with language.  I struggle with pride.  A constant struggle is going on inside of me, trying to set myeslf apart from this world, spiritual warfare.  With all of this stuff going on, I have never felt, "worthy" to share my faith.  I know I'm changed.  Changing, transforming into a disciple of Christ, but I'm no where close, and I feel unworthy.  As class ended, I approached Dr. Wheeler, and pretty much just told him all of that, and he had one thing to say to me.  One phrase that caught my eye..  " Don't look at me, look at what Jesus has done for me".  If we make evangelism about us,  not God, not Christ, not the Holy Spirit, then I believe were missing the whole point.  Hopefully that phrase will encourage others, the way it has encouraged me.

Which leads me to another point
Where does Disciplship tie into my evangelistic outreach?  One thing Dr. Wheeler does an excellent job of, is keeping the two together, and I don't even know if he realizes it.  Listen to just one of his classes, and you will understand what I'm saying.  He doesn't try to make evangelism out to be some big thing we do on the weekends.  He strives to make it a point and an aspect of every single part of his life.  So, maybe he won't even have to introduce Christ to someone, maybe they will notice, by his actions.  How he mirrors the image that Jesus set forth for us.

Which leads me to another point .. 

Many of my inner struggles come from my struggles with discipleship.  I believe whole heartedly that we are called, as Christians to become like Christ.  If we don't, if there is no transformation, then does Christ really live inside of us?  That has been one of the things that gets to me, because I know, I see in my own life, that I am not a little Christ, I'm not perfect.  We will never be perfect, but we will begin to change, we will begin to transform once we truely have Christ inside of us.  Spiritual Warfare will begin.  I'm no expert, and I hope not to sound like one, I'm just speaking purely from personal experiences and struggles in my own life. 

James writes in Chapter 2

“What good is it, my brothers if a man claims to have faith, but has no deeds?  Can such faith save him? Suppose a brother or a sister is without clothes or daily food,  if one of you says to him, go, I wish you well, keep warm and well fed, but does nothing about his physical needs, what good is it?” In the same way – faith if not accompanied by action is dead, it is USELESS”

Part of my testimony revolves around this aspect of it.  I got "saved" when I was like 7.  But, was I really saved?  Throughout the years, did I really bear the faith that James talks about?  No way.  Not in anyway, shape or form.  I consider the true date I gave my life to Christ Novemeber 15th, 2009.  It was here where, at a low point, completely seperated from God, completely useless, I surrendered my life truely to Christ.  Since then, the Holy Spirit has been moving in me, putting questions on my heart, in my mind, about what it truely means to be a Christ follower, and if "saying a prayer, saying " I believe", is just enough. 

Growing up, in the "Bible Belt", the word discipleship didn't exist.  What I was taught from the church was pretty simple.  Say a prayer, get saved. Jesus loves you. Duh.  It was so simple.  It was purely  Evangelism/Salvation. Was that all it was, though?  For years, I compromised.  There's a problem though.  Compromise only satisfies for the time being.

Discipelship, therefore, is a fairly new term, introduced to me by my parents several years ago.  I used to hate it, (dad doesn't know this), but I couldn't stand it.  I'd say "this is stupid, Jesus saved me when I was 7, it's impossible to become christ like, to do the things Jesus would have done, were humans, he's God. etc. etc. etc".  I mean, I had every excuse in the book.  I never told my father that, because I knew it would break his heart.  Something he was so passionate about, his son couldn't stand.  Every time I would hear the word, I would tune out, because I knew if I didn't, God would begin to convict me, and I didn't want that.  I didn't want to live like Christ, afterall, God had "saved me" right?  It's that mentality, I believe that is responsible for such hatred towards "Christians" around the world.  Many "Christians", aren't even true Christ followers at all, and they are too prideful (like I was) to begin to recognize it.

Matthew 7:21-23 says it VERY clearly.  It is a verse often overlooked, but I believe one of the most powerful verses in scripture.

Obviously, I struggled with this, with understanding it ( still do), discipleship, but it has been a good struggle, one that has helped me grow in my relationship with Christ.  My father, Mark Robinson, recently spoke on the topic of Evangelism and Discipleship at Cornerstone Community Church, and how the two go hand and hand, rather than be seperated from each other.  I encourage everyone who has struggled with these same things to watch this sermon , it may help clarify some questions.   

Hopefully this made some semblence of sense, and has raised some good questions, in your own mind about your faith.