A winter recap on the eve of my winter forecast..

First, let's start by looking back at one of the snowiest winter's of all time in SWVA.

It started December 5th, when a low pressure system shot up the coast, dropping 3-6" accross the New River Valley and NW NC Mountains.

The biggest storm since 1996 occured two weeks later, when a low pressure system tracked through Alabama, Georgia, SC, and eventually off the coast of NC.  This was a slow mover, with cold air in place, it was nearly all snow.

Totals ranged from 10-20" accross SWVA and NWNC, with 14" at my house in Woodlawn, and as much as 26" in the Shenandoah Mountains.

January was mainly dry, until the last two days of the month, when a storm tracked straight accross the South.  With an artic high pressure to the north, overunning of two vastly different air masses occured, and it once again, dumped on us.  Temperatures struggled to hit 20 for 3 days, as 12" fell on the 31st, then 3" over the next two days.  This was a historic storm for many in Eastern Virginia, with places south of Richmond picking up 15-20" of snow.

While not the best map, you can see how the area of white expands over SE Virginia, and over the SW Blue Ridge Mountains.

A week later, February 6th, an odd setup for snow occured, a low pressure tracked west of the Appalachian mountains.  In most winter this would be a set up for rain, but with Cold air entrenched on the Eastern slopes of the Appalchians, a solid 12-24" fell from Boone, NC up through SWVA into DC.  For many in DC this became one of the largest snowfalls ever, with totals well over 2 feet in many places.

A week later, another storm with the same setup dropped  lesser ammounts, on the order of 3-6" accross SWVA.

Finally, to cap it off, we had a shot of elevation dependant snow on March 5th-6th, dropping around 6-8" in the higher elevations of Grayson, Carroll, and Floyd counties.


So, many of you are asking, will this winter rival that winter?  My answer, is no, it will not even come close.  Last winter was a winter where we saw twice our average snowfall, that happens about once every 10 years.  It certainly looks like that will not occur this year.  So what will happen?

Come back later to find out.

It's been a long time

I haven't really felt too inspired to write anything... but here's some things I want to touch on.

• Boy Meets Girl - Is a book by Joshua Harris I'm currently reading.  I encourage  all college aged students to read it.  Caution:  This is not a relationship book for anyone under the age of 17.  It's not a graphic book, younger high schoolers however would have trouble relating.
• Well known auther Benjamin Wilkinson, author of the Prayer of Jabez spoke at Convo today.  He gave an interesting sermon.  He called it the three chair sermon.  The chairs were based on generations, based on an illustration out of the book of Joshua.
• Chair One:  The generation of our Grandparents, and SOME of our Parents, my parent's fall into this Chair.  People who actively serve God.  People who strive every day toward discipleship and truely following God.
• Chair Two:  The generation below our Grandparents.  Most of our parents.  They grew up watching Generation One, but never figured out why or how they were so close with God.  They grew up in Church.  They have some semblance of a relationship with God  They are still saved, still going to Heaven, but are very lackadaisical in their faith.
• Chair Three:  This generation is my generation, or partly future generations.  They saw how their parents, the one's in chair two acted, so lackadaisical toward God, they don't see the point in it.  They don't see anyworkds in Chair Two's live's.  There is simply no point to follow a God.

This challenged me, and I encourage those who haven't heard this message, try to find it online somewhere, because he tells it much better than I do, and it will change your whole outlook on your faith.

On another note, looks like it's about to get wet.  Rain all next week.

It's been like full week...

And a busy one at that.

Tuesday morning was quite possible the worste feeling I've ever had waking up.  As many of you know, my Chokies, choked one up in the last 2 minutes of the game, giving away a victory over #3 Boise State.  It was however, one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched.  I felt like I got hit by a truck the next day.

Meteorogical Summer started 10 days ago, and we have already had several nights in the 40's :) :) :).
I am a huge huge huge huge closet weather nerd.  Why I didn't go to school for meteorology is beyond me, but I'm here at LU and I love it.

Anyways, here's a few fall predictions for Central and SW Virginia for this fall.

Average Temperatures:   We are coming out of the hottest summer on record, which is coming out of the snowiest winter on record.  I expect within 2-3 weeks the mountains will have their first freezing temperatures.  Normalcy for once? Possibly.

This is the "cold snap" I refer to coming in the coming weeks.

Below Average Precipitation:  We have already seen a trend begining of dry, cool Canadian cold fronts cross the region in the first several days of September.  When this happens, any type of tropical system gets deflected away from the Eastern US by the subsequent high pressure system.  Look for this to really establish itself toward the middle/ later part of the month.    Rain has been very minimal for several weeks now, look for this to continue at least toward the last week of September.

The broadness of this map speaks to me.  The browns are abnormally dry, over such a vast area, this indicates that it is a pattern of dry weather, not just an isolated incodent.

When will the leaves start to change?  Our area is known for it's diverse color in the fall.  Often times a 20 minute drive and a 2,000' elevation change are the difference between a sea of green and an ocean of bright orange, red, and yellow.  The season this year, looks to be alot duller than most, which is a real dissapointment.  A combination of very little rain, and a very hot summer, have things kind of dried out.  Winds look to be common this fall, too.  Providing easy access for the dry, dead leaves not to stay long.  Elevation is a good guide to go by, in determining when the leaves will start/peak/end.

• 0-1,000' (coastal areas):  Start Mid October Peak, Mid November
• 1,000'2,000' ( valley areas of the mountains/ Piedmont):  ; Start, Early October; Peak, Around November 1st
• 2,000 - 3,500; (Blue Ridge Parkway, West)  Start, Mid September; Peak, Early October-Mid October
• 3,5000' (Grayson Highlands, Higher Elevations of the Shenandoah) +; Start, Early September, Peak; Late September, Early October.

The question I'm dying to answer is, "When will it snow"? Here in Lyncburg ( the Piedmont ), don't look for any before Thanskgiving.  Again, this is an elevation thing, here are my best guesses.

• First flakes above 2800', Late October.  First Accumlation of Snow - I'm going early this year, Fall Break, the week before Thanksgiving.
• First flakes above 4,000' - Early October; First Accumulation of Snow, Late October.
• Piedmont:  First Flakes/ Accumulation - December.

1. Two Bold Predictions about the fall.  No Hurricane will strike the U.S.  The pattern just doesn't support it, at least until Early October, and by then the tropics will be dying.  Not impossible, I just don't see it happening.

                                         
2. A Major Snowstorm  will strike the interior NE in late October.  With a cooling trend coming the next several weeks, I look for a warm up in the Eastern US in the beggining of Octbober, followed by winter establishing itself in the Eastern US the later part of the month.  It is not unheard of to have heavy wet snowfalls in the mountains of WV/PA/NY in late October, and I see a pattern favorable for that this year.  Check out this map summarizing a storm last October 18-20th in the Eastern US, snow fell from the high mountains of NC to New England. (See Above)

I'm have a pretty good idea of my winter forecast, I will  post it the later part of this month, as some trends in the upper air patterns for the coming season still have to present themselves.

I'm done nerding it up for the week.  Deuces.

God's Timing

My prayer for myself, for my friends, for everyone I know is that we all will work in God's timing.  That we will just be still and know, that God is truely God, and no matter how hard we try to forget that fact, it will never change.  He was, he is, he will forever be". That we will all truely place God first in everything we do, and believe me that is such a hard hard thing to do.

This is so cliche.  "God's timing".  But really? Should it be cliche?  Let me explain..

Let's say there is a job I am really, really looking forward to.  However, lets say, that my boss is a non believer, as well as my co-workers.  If I wasn't spiritually ready to enter that environment, what kind of impact would I have?  What kind of image would I put on the word Christian?  Just probably more fodder to non christians who spend their days searching for Hypocites.

Now, lets look at it from a different perspective.

Say, I pray about it, ask for God's patience, and against my human nature, listen to God, and tough it out.  Let's say I still get the same job, nothing changes.  However, I am much more spiritually  mature in Christ.  I am much more prepared to share my faith.  I am much more disciplined spiritually, so my sinful nature doesn't control me. 
See the difference?

The same t concept can be applied to almost anything in life.  Work, relationships, financial decisions etc. etc. If we are not where God wants us to do something, to accomplish something - - don't. 

I was talking with a friend today.  She was explaining to me how she was so excited to go on a missions trip during spring break.  She went to the meetings, spent a while filling out the forms.  She got to the last page.  The last box on the last page, where it asked " Define your relationship with Christ, where your at, and what not".

She quit filling it out.  Her response to my question "Why?" was simply: (not word for word)  It would have been selfish.  I know spiritually I am not ready to go on a missions trip yet.  I am not where God wants me to do that.

Pretty humbling, eh?

Jimmy Eat World.

I'm totally nerding it up right now. The flu is what I'm dubbing this illness but it sucks pretty bad.  I've been in bed all night and can't sleep, so I'm up trying to read some scriptures/ jam out some, but here's what I've come up with.

Here's some quick thoughts running through my mind. 

• It's gonna be an amazingly beautiful weekend.  High's in the 70's and low's in the 40's.
• Business Managment is gonna be tough.
• Seek God's timing, don't try to do things on your own.

Provers 16:9, without a doubt comes to mind tonight. 
 "In his heart a man plans his course, but the Lord determines his steps"

I can't help but think of my story, and how I got here, to where I'm at in my relationship with God now.  While I'm certainly new to this, I'm so much closer to God now, then I have ever been at any point in my life.

I was reading through Hebrews tonight when I came accross this passage in Chapter 6:4-6

"It is impossible for those who have once been enlightened, who have tasted the heavenly gift, who have shared in the Holy Spirit, who have tasted the goodness of the word of God and the powers of the coming age, if they fall away, to be brought back to repentance, because to their loss they are crucifying the Son of God all over again and subjecting him to public disgrace."

Don't read into this the wrong way.  Hebrews was written mainly toward believer's in Christ.  This passage, or at least it is my understanding that in this context, was written to Believer's.  I don't see this passage as a simplified warning " if you fall away from Christ, there's no hope".  I believe that is foolish because everyone, no matter what is always going to go through a rough time in their walk with Christ.  There will always be highs, lows and everything in between. 

However, I believe this passage is stating that once we are Christians, once we truely believe, if we choose to walk away, if we fade away, then there is ABSOLUTELY no hope for us, and there never was.  If we've truely expereinced, truely tasted God's Majesty and power, yet still fall from faith, then there is no hope for us to come to our senses.

Rather than look at this passage from a "dont fall from your faith" standpoint; I believe it's pretty clearly saying "Look, you've tasted me, you've seen me, you've seen that I am God, yet you still choose to fade, it is completely useless, and there is truely no hope".

"I'm just not good enough"

This post is gonna try to stay short and too the point.  It's late, I had class all morning, then worked 7 hours this evening, so I'm beat, but here goes.  I was reading through some scipture earlier this evening when I oppened to 2 peter.  I was going to read the whole book, but just stopped after one because of what I read.

2nd Peter 1:3-4 says, "His divine power has given us everything we need for a life of godliness throuhg our knowledge of him who called us by his own glory and goodness.  Through these he has given us his very great and prescious promises, so that through them you may participate in the divine nature and escape the corruption of the world caused by evil desires".

vs. 1:5-8 reads "For this very reason, make every effort to add to your faith goodness;, and to goodness, knowledge; and to knowledge, self control; and to self control, perseverance; and to perseverance, godliness; and to godliness, brotherly kindness; and to brotherly kindness, love.  For it you possess these qualities in incerasing mesaure, they will keep you from being ineffective and unproductive in your knowledge of our Lord Jesus Christ.".

This is pretty straightforward to me.  Romans 10-9-10 reads "If you confess with your mouth and believe in your heart he died, you will be saved; (KEY PART most people leave out) for it is with your heart that you believe and are justified, with your mouth you confess". 

If we are saved, and claim to be saved, we have no excuse not to be living it.  2 Peter makes it very clear that we have all of these tools necessary, and that it is a matter of the heart weather we actual live up to our billing as Christians.

A friend of mind talked to me today, and said "Ya know, we've grown up in a place where were pretty much born Christians", yet me, my friends, we don't live that way, so why claim to be it? Until I get some things figured out I'm not even going to claim to be a Christian." 
As painful as that is to hear, as a follower of Christ, I say kudos to her, because she has the guts to standout and s'ay look, were not living like God has called us, so why even claim it?" 

I'm praying for her because God has put alot of big questions on her heart, and at least she has the guts to put her foot down, and say look, this isn't right, even if that means denying the Christian faith. 

On another note, I started a book today called "Sex God, exploring the endless connections between spirituality and sexuality".  I'm looking forward to this book.  In the preface it says " to make sense of one, we have to explore the other".  I'm hoping to gain a greater appreciation of purity, and hoping it will help me grow and stay strong in my walk with Christ.

Until next time, stay classy San Diego.